A stroke happens when blood supply to part of the brain is cut off, and it is one of the leading causes of long-term disability and death in the United States. The good news is that most strokes are preventable, and the first step toward prevention is knowing where you stand. This stroke risk calculator uses the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile, the same point-score model developed from decades of data collected by the Framingham Heart Study, to estimate both your 10-year chance of having a stroke and your lifetime risk from the factors you enter.
Because the model is built on simple, well-known risk factors — age, blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, atrial fibrillation, and a few others — you can change one number at a time and watch your risk move. That makes it a practical tool for motivating the changes that matter most, like getting blood pressure under control or quitting smoking.
How to Use
- Enter your Age in years. Risk rises steeply with age, so this is the single biggest driver on the page.
- Select your Biological Sex (male or female). The published point tables differ slightly between sexes for diabetes and atrial fibrillation.
- Type your Systolic Blood Pressure — the top number, measured in mmHg. Use an average of several readings rather than a single anxious reading at the clinic.
- Set On Blood Pressure Medication to yes or no. Treated blood pressure is scored differently from untreated pressure.
- Enter your Total Cholesterol and HDL ("Good") Cholesterol in mg/dL from a recent fasting lipid panel. Higher total cholesterol adds points; higher HDL subtracts points.
- Mark Diabetes, Current Smoker, Prior Cardiovascular Disease, Atrial Fibrillation, and Left Ventricular Hypertrophy to yes where they apply. These are the modifiable and history-based factors that add points.
- Read the result card: your total Framingham Points, the estimated 10-Year Stroke Risk, and the Lifetime Risk of Stroke.
The engine converts each factor into age- and sex-banded points, sums them, and looks up the corresponding 10-year probability from the Framingham point-to-risk table. The lifetime risk figure is a rough illustrative estimate derived from the same point total and your current age, not a published Framingham value — treat it as a direction-of-travel guide rather than a precise probability.
The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile
The model was published by Wolf and colleagues in Stroke in 1991, derived from the long-running Framingham Heart Study cohort. Rather than producing a single probability from a complicated formula, it assigns points to each risk factor:
- Age adds points in five-year bands, from 0 points below age 55 up to 7 points at age 85 or older.
- Systolic blood pressure is the strongest modifiable lever. For untreated pressure: below 120 mmHg adds 0 points, 120–139 adds 1, 140–159 adds 2, and 160 mmHg or above adds 3. For treated pressure the same bands shift: below 120 adds −2, 120–139 adds 0, 140–159 adds 1, and 160+ adds 2.
- Total cholesterol below 200 mg/dL adds 0, 200–239 adds 1, and 240 mg/dL or above adds 2.
- HDL ("good") cholesterol below 40 mg/dL adds 1 point, 40–59 adds 0, and 60 mg/dL or above subtracts 1 point (protective).
- Diabetes adds 2 points in men and 3 points in women.
- Current smoking adds 2 points for either sex.
- Prior cardiovascular disease (heart attack, angina, heart failure, or leg claudication) adds 2 points.
- Atrial fibrillation adds 4 points in men and 6 in women — one of the largest single contributions.
- ECG left ventricular hypertrophy adds 4 points in men and 5 in women.
The total is then mapped to a 10-year stroke probability using a published lookup table: 0–4 points ≈ 1%, 5–9 points ≈ 2%, 10–14 points ≈ 3%, 15–19 points ≈ 6%, 20–24 points ≈ 10%, 25–29 points ≈ 15%, 30–34 points ≈ 21%, and 35 or more points ≈ 28%. The lifetime risk figure is an approximate estimate built from the same point total and your age, calibrated to a realistic range of roughly 15% (low-risk young adult) to 45% (high-risk elderly); because it is an approximation rather than a published Framingham coefficient, use it only as a screening ballpark.
Examples
Example 1 — The reference profile. A 65-year-old man with systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg (untreated), total cholesterol 220 mg/dL, HDL 45 mg/dL, diabetes, who currently smokes, and has atrial fibrillation. Age contributes 3 points, untreated SBP 140 contributes 2, cholesterol 220 contributes 1, HDL 45 contributes 0, diabetes (male) 2, smoking 2, and atrial fibrillation (male) 4 — a total of 14 points. The calculator returns an estimated 10-year stroke risk of 3% and a lifetime risk of 26.5%. This profile typically prompts a conversation with a doctor about tighter blood pressure control, smoking cessation, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation.
Example 2 — The low-risk baseline. A 55-year-old man with blood pressure of 120 mmHg, total cholesterol 185 mg/dL, HDL 55 mg/dL, no diabetes, non-smoker, no atrial fibrillation, and no prior cardiovascular disease. He accumulates 2 points (age 1 + untreated SBP 120 = 1; cholesterol and HDL contribute 0), corresponding to a 10-year risk of 1% and a lifetime risk of 19.0%. Staying physically active, keeping blood pressure in the normal range, and avoiding tobacco keeps this profile low.
Example 3 — Treated hypertension helps. A 70-year-old woman with systolic blood pressure of 150 mmHg that is now treated with medication, total cholesterol 210 mg/dL, HDL 50 mg/dL, plus diabetes, but she does not smoke and has no atrial fibrillation. Treated SBP 150 contributes only 1 point (compared with 2 if untreated), age contributes 4, cholesterol 210 contributes 1, and diabetes (female) contributes 3 — a total of 9 points, a 10-year risk of 2% and a lifetime risk of 25.5%. Treating blood pressure meaningfully lowers the score even though the measured number itself is still elevated.
Example 4 — The high-risk profile. An 80-year-old man with untreated systolic blood pressure of 180 mmHg, total cholesterol 250 mg/dL, HDL 35 mg/dL, diabetes, smoking, prior cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, and ECG left ventricular hypertrophy. His point total climbs to 26 points (age 6 + untreated SBP 3 + cholesterol 2 + low HDL 1 + diabetes 2 + smoking 2 + CVD 2 + AFib 4 + LVH 4), pushing the 10-year risk to 15% and the lifetime risk to 37.0% — a High-risk profile. Profiles like this are where aggressive medical management can have the largest absolute benefit.
FAQ
What is a normal stroke risk percentage?
For adults under 65 with no major risk factors, a 10-year stroke risk under about 5% is considered Low (category 0). Between 5% and 15% is Moderate (category 1), and above 15% is High (category 2). These are population estimates, not a guarantee — an individual can still have a stroke even with a low score, which is why screening and a healthy lifestyle matter regardless of the number.
How accurate is this stroke risk calculator?
It uses the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile, a well-validated model derived from decades of observational data. It is reasonably accurate for ranking risk in Western populations, but it is an estimate based on average effects. Real risk depends on factors the model does not capture, such as family history, imaging findings, and medication adherence, so it should be used as a starting point for a conversation with a clinician rather than a diagnosis.
Does high blood pressure really affect stroke risk this much?
Yes. Systolic blood pressure is the largest modifiable lever in the model. Moving from 120 mmHg to 160 mmHg adds two untreated points on its own, and treating it — even if the number stays elevated — lowers the point penalty by about one band. Keeping systolic pressure below 130 mmHg is one of the most effective ways to reduce lifetime stroke risk.
What does atrial fibrillation do to my stroke score?
Atrial fibrillation is one of the heaviest single factors, adding 4 points in men and 6 points in women. That is because AFib dramatically raises the chance of blood clots forming in the heart and traveling to the brain. If you have AFib, ask your doctor whether anticoagulant medication is appropriate — it can lower stroke risk far more than lifestyle changes alone.
Is smoking a reversible risk factor for stroke?
Yes. Current smoking adds 2 points, but quitting rapidly reduces that contribution. Within a few years of stopping, the excess stroke risk from smoking falls substantially. The calculator scores current smokers; if you have quit, select "no" to reflect your current risk.
What is the difference between 10-year and lifetime stroke risk?
The 10-year estimate looks at your chance of a stroke in the next decade, which is most useful for deciding on near-term preventive treatment. Lifetime risk sums the chance of a stroke at any age going forward, and it is naturally higher — roughly one in four for many adults. A high lifetime risk but low 10-year risk still motivates long-term habits like exercise and blood pressure control.
Disclaimer
This stroke risk calculator is provided for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. It uses a simplified Framingham-based point model and cannot replace a clinical evaluation by a licensed physician or qualified healthcare professional. The estimated percentages are population-level approximations based on the inputs you enter and may differ from your actual risk. Do not start, stop, or change any medication, blood pressure treatment, or anticoagulation based on this calculator alone. Always consult your doctor about your personal stroke risk, screening schedule, and prevention plan. We do not store or transmit any personal health information you enter here; see our Privacy Policy for details.